Max Divergent

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Posts by Max Divergent

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  14

  Why WLCs lottery counter-example for "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" is flawed

  by bohm in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i recently began reading strobels "the case for faith" and in chapter two wlc repeat his refutation that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".

  his argument is as follows: .

  this standard would prevent you from believing in all sorts of events that we do rationally embrace.

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  Max Divergent

  you would not believe the report on the evening news that the numbers chosen in last night's lottery were 4, 2, 9, 7, 8 and 3, because that would be an event of extraordinary improbability

  Rubbish. This dude is a liar. This is one of the most basic, stupid, dishonest uses of stats going. But typical for someone trying to argue for god, if that's what this author is doing.

  The probability of six numbers being drawn in a scheduled, properly organized lottery is 0.5 - the numbers will be drawn, or they won't be. The likelihood of such a draw resulting in six numbers being correclty reported on the news is much higher - 0.9 according to a pessimistic bohm. So there should be no difficulty in accepting that 4, 2, 9, 7, 8 and 3 were drawn if they are within the range of the numbers used in the lottery: they are as likely as any other set of six numbers from the barrel in a fair lottery.

  If the odds of a single guess selecting in advance the numbers drawn is 1:1,000,000 that has no baring whatever on whether we can accept that a set of numbers was drawn and that they happened to be 4, 2, 9, 7, 8 and 3. There is no 'extraordinary improbability' that six numbers will be drawn and that they might be the six announced on the news the next night.

  In the absence of an 'extraordinary claim', there is no call for extraordinary evidence.

  As to this idea of the Jesus resurrection happening, there is neither a statistical argument to make nor is there an analogy to anything available. It either happened or it didn't, and the likelihood on all the available evidence is that the resurrection didn't happen. But maybe it did. Either way, Carl Sagan's good sense rule of thumb 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence' stands.

  I remember reading an article saying some Christian wrote (and I went to one of their bookstores to see the book for myself and it was true) that the failure rate for condoms was somthing extraordinary - 60% or somthing like that. But the success rate for abstinance was said to be 100%. How could such silly numbers be gotten to? Well, if you took a survey of pregnant teens and asked 'did you consider or try to use a condom?' and the answer was yes, then 60% (or whatever the number was) might be arrived at. But then you should ask 'did you consider or try to use abstinance?', and a number will be arrived at to be compared with the 60%. But they've just taken some notion that abstinance works 100% and compared it to some other data arrived at in a different way to get an answer to push to gullible people. Just another dishonest use of stats.
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  101

  What do you mean?! I ALWAYS go to the beach after service and wear long pants and button up shirts while I play a game in the sand with my family! Sometimes I wear button up long sleeve shirts too!

  by Crisis of Conscience in

  1. social
  2. humour

  the wts likes to imply how jws should dress in and outside of the hall.

  you always want to set an example.. so i couldn't help but share this beauty in the january 15th, 2013, study edition of the watchtower.

  i always go to the beach like this!

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  Max Divergent

  At risk of prolonging trivia... Of course wearing chinos is unusual on the beach. I can remember wearing trousers on the beach twice: once for wedding and once because we decide to walk on the beach after a meal at a beach side restaurant. Maybe this group is supposed to have spontaneously just decided to head to the beach after a meeting or service? If so, that's quite healthy for JWs. Few would plan to wear chinos on the beach, but at least the WTS is showing JWs having normal(-ish) fun, not the usual meeting, service, study, pray routine.

  I didn't say wearing meeting clothes to the beach was normal (!!), just that covering up the skin (with some kind of clothing), especially in family settings, is hardly freakish behaviour of itself. I think I wrote that after a week on a family oriented beach (ie: a bay with no waves, everyone had small kids and most had beach tents: not the Gold Coast) when temps were in the 40s. Some people covered up more than others. No one wore chinos. But if some grandpa had chosen to, well, freaking good on him is all I'd want to say.
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  55

  Anyone noticed a curiosity on the Memorial Invitation for 2013 ?

  by EdenOne in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i can't scan the memorial invitation for 2013, but i was looking at it today and noticed something curious on the front drawing.. we have jesus as the central figure of the composition.

  to his right and bottom, a large crown, in colour, of shiny happy people of diverse origins.. separated from this by the figure of jesus, is another group, a much smaller one, on the left and as if ascending to the top, and grayed.. clearly portrayed in this group is the face of ct russell and apparently william tyndale.

  but then, also sarah and abraham and other personalities of the ot seem to be represented there.

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  Max Divergent

  Got mine today too. I'd thought I might tease them by 'spotting' Captain Janeway or something if they came around. I was out the back when Mrs Divergent, being a sport, called out for me to go to the front to 'see beauty' saying the door bell was about to ring. Cryptic, but I got the idea it was JWs.

  OMFG.... the two most beautiful, gorgeous, to die for women I've seen in too long ... African, clothes just right (modest, and that was better), make-up, hair - the whole thing. They smiled (brilliant radiance), offered the invitaiton (sensuous timbre with a slight but wonderful accent) and I said "thank you" (sincerely, but not referring to the invitation). As they headed off I said 'I'll get the gate for you', they said 'thank you, bye' and they're off. Gone. Like zephyrs into the wind.

  As I recovered from this encounter with perfection, the next pair wanders past: a sour-face leading (I guess an elder's wife) with a non-descript wearing a tent tagging along. Sour-face gets held up at my neighbour's door: he seems to be a born again or something. Blah, blah, blah. Who cares. I might have done my Janeway gag with her just for the joy of seeing her reaction; but I couldn't do anything but be a perfect gentleman with the wonders of nature who did come to my door.

  Maybe I have found two perfect reasons to go to the Memorial?

  Maybe not.
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  57

  What is the most powerful album that you have ever listened to?

  by zed is dead in

  1. jw
  2. friends
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  Max Divergent

  I see several have nominated it already, but even if you don't happen to like the album or the band personally I think Pink Floyd's The Wall is THE powerful album for XJWs. It's clear, sometimes brutal themes of loss, abandonment, alienation, madness and ultimate despair and ostracism matches the JW life to a tee.

  For those who aren't sure why so many have nominated it, the album follows Pink who grows up the harassed son of a neurotic and domineering mother after dad died in the war (the neurotic and domineering WTS even calls itself 'mother' as if to make the parallel clear!). Pink's life spirals out of control until he's had enough and builds a wall as a barrier between him and his world: something many unhappy JWs do just to survive trapped in the con they are God's chosen people and God chose a bloody awful life for them. He goes mad in his own bedevilled world behind the wall, like JWs sometimes do, then as the wall crumbles he has to face the awful reality of life and his place in it.

  Well, that's what I think it's about anyhow. I thought that as a young and miserable JW boy feeling abandoned to a mad and horrible world of alienation, repression and quiet desperation. It helped me stay a bit sane knowing somoene else knew and gave me songs about it.
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  101

  What do you mean?! I ALWAYS go to the beach after service and wear long pants and button up shirts while I play a game in the sand with my family! Sometimes I wear button up long sleeve shirts too!

  by Crisis of Conscience in

  1. social
  2. humour

  the wts likes to imply how jws should dress in and outside of the hall.

  you always want to set an example.. so i couldn't help but share this beauty in the january 15th, 2013, study edition of the watchtower.

  i always go to the beach like this!

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  Max Divergent

  Get a grip.

  The OP image was Adealdie, Australia and the March 2013 picture could be southern hemisphere too. Skin cancer rates in Australia and New Zealand (probably South Africa too) are 2-4 times times higher than US, Canada and UK (depending on the source) as a result of ozone depleation and outdoor lifestyle factors. As a result many people do cover up on the beach including in garments like shown in the March 2013 image which are made of a fabric is designed to block ultra violet rays but be acceptably comfortable in the water. The amount of skin coverage in the OP image is unsuprising on beaches or anywhere outdooors in Australia, although the style of clothing might be uncommon on the beach.

  http://www.cancer.org.au/preventing-cancer/sun-protection/

  Showing these images is a pretty responsible action by the WTS - even if they also feed into the body modesty ideas they promote.

  http://www.cancer.org.au/preventing-cancer/sun-protection/sun-protection-products/swimwear.html

  Use the above link to buy your own WT approved beachwear.
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  11

  AUSTRALIA: Migration Scam Being Operated by Jehovah's Witnesses and the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society

  by jwleaks in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  jw leaks has updated their "human rights" page with hundreds of pages of documents released, all relating to 19 separate court cases involving jehovah's witnesses conducted through the european court of human rights and also the australian refugee tribunal.. .

  the 9 cases that were run through the australian refugee tribunal by the jehovah's witnesses all came from lebanon.. .

  one former member of jehovah's witnesses, who advised on a number of refugee and migration cases for jehovah's witnesses and the watchtower bible and tract society of australia, and provided the documents and background information (yet to be published) to jw leaks, stated:.

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  Max Divergent

  One former member of Jehovah's Witnesses ... provided the documents and background information (yet to be published) to JW Leaks...

  So, the tantalising propect of inside information from a former member who is, by definition, out-of-date, out-of-the-loop and probably has an axe to grind... why not wait till you post these 'provided' documents before making a big claim like the JWs ' clearly broke the law'.

  JWs are as entitled as anyone to apply for a visa and if they get some pastoral assistance with the process, that is not a crime. Helping with forms and the English language etc is not giving migration advice.

  The posted documents show authorities making decisions on the basis of facts in front of them based on a range of materials in accord with the law. So what?

  they were also helping Australian circuit overseers and missionaries get into a number of Asian countries with the use of dummy corporations and businesses set up by Jehovah's Witnesses for this very purpose.

  They are a corporaiton. What else does a corporation do but apply for its officials to go overseas in the name of a corporaiton?

  This is half baked.
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  11

  Choose one: confident Belief based on Faith.....or.........?

  by Terry in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  which, if either, is best for you: being a believer who accepts on faith.

  being a skeptic who doesn't trust belief and prefers to rely on fact?.

  no cop outs allowed such as: both.. .

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  Max Divergent

  This faith and belief thing seems all random and idiosyncratic to me, based on the outcomes one can observe of ideologically driven politics, religion etc. Sometimes random things work out well: say if you win the lottery. Usually they work out badly.

  Evidence-based approaches reduce random elements and systematicly approach attaining useful outcomes. Much better chance of things going right.

  For me, given the choice, I go with the option that is most likley to provide the best possible results. That is evidence-based reasoning.

  Max
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  93

  Should pranksters be held responsible for results of their pranks?

  by Satanus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  two djs, posing as the queen and prince, prank a nurse into divulging info on kate.

  nurse is later found dead, apparently suicide.. -----------.

  'jacintha saldanha, the receptionist who was duped by two australian djs who were pretending to be queen elizabeth and prince charles in order to get information on the duchess of cambridge's pregnancy, has been found dead.. the woman's body was found at an address close to king edward vii hospital in london, where the duchess was being treated, according to the u.k.'s daily mail.

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  Max Divergent

  I agree with a lot of what Pajaha and others urging moderation said, but I have a different view. To say it's OK to undertake such 'pranks' means it is hard to penalise those who do the same thing for criminal motivaitons - how do you administer a law where 'oh, it was a prank' is a defence to stealing information for your own benefit (in this case noteriety and publicity)? If that's the case, let's all do it and make funny You Tubes of random people's medical histories etc. And use the info for identity theft at the same time.

  ...plenty of worse pranks played on TV and radio, plenty far more likely to cause

  someone to commit suicide or suffer a heart attack.

  Maybe this is what it took for a review of those practices. Any activity with such dire consequences can't be good.

  ...the hospital have done a very good job of deflecting blame from themselves on to the DJs.

  Quite right. The DJs, their management, the surviving nurse and hospital management should be accountable for their actions in accord with the law.

  The DJs are not responsibile for the death of the nurse. But that are responsible for their own actions. The radio and hospital managements are also responsible for their actions and omissions - such as nurses apparently not knowing who they may talk to about Her Royal Highnesses health and the conditions under which they may do so. Her Majesty does not make calls like that, I would expect, but somehow two nurses thought they were speaking the the Queen. Maybe they wanted to believe they did speak to the Queen; it'd be a highlight for their career if it happened. To have that excitement crushed publicly without them knowing, so far as we know, in advance of the broardcast was cruel.

  If the law in New South Wales is as has been reported, then their acts are worthy of being considered by a criminal court in accord with the laws governing trials which include considering the health of the accused.

  All involved, at the radio station and the hospital, might be hoping for a healthy baby to be born with no further complications for their own sakes.
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  93

  Should pranksters be held responsible for results of their pranks?

  by Satanus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  two djs, posing as the queen and prince, prank a nurse into divulging info on kate.

  nurse is later found dead, apparently suicide.. -----------.

  'jacintha saldanha, the receptionist who was duped by two australian djs who were pretending to be queen elizabeth and prince charles in order to get information on the duchess of cambridge's pregnancy, has been found dead.. the woman's body was found at an address close to king edward vii hospital in london, where the duchess was being treated, according to the u.k.'s daily mail.

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  Max Divergent

  Cut through the crap... someone impersonated the head-of-state for the purpose of gaining privilaged information and then broardcast that information on the radio for commercial gain. In this case it was info about a newly expectant first time mother.

  Did the late nurse react rationally? No. Is it to be expected someone who might feel they publicly let down the head-of-state might react in an extreme way? Yes.

  I think it was fraud and a jury should decide if it was criminal.
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  43

  Calling all Aussies and Kiwis

  by SkyGreen in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  if u don't mind saying if u r kiwi or aussie, and basic info like m/f, how long in, how long out, or if fading like me.. im female i live in aussie but born in nz fading the last few months.

  know it ain't the truth, but am married with little kids and closest family and friends all in.

  trying the slow fade and hoping my husband will do the same... being very gentle with him... .

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  Max Divergent

  Currently in SA, stopped attending meetings more than 10 years ago.